Weichai Power (000338)： Leading heavy truck industry chain leads Zhiyuan Intelligent Logistics, fuel cells add new kinetic energy
Weichai Power (000338): Leading heavy truck industry chain leads Zhiyuan Intelligent Logistics, fuel cells add new kinetic energy
Investment logic The traditional main industry heavy truck industry chain business continued to weaken and its performance grew steadily.
1) The heavy truck industry chain business is the company’s traditional main business. In H1 2019, the company’s three major businesses: engine, 杭州夜网论坛 heavy truck, and heavy truck gearboxes accounted for 64% of revenue, and its mother business accounted for 89%. Historically, the companyHeavy truck industry chain business revenue, performance and heavy truck sales are highly correlated, changing with the heavy truck cycle.
2) From the top down, we think the renewal demand will support the sales of heavy trucks in the next three years.
According to our calculations, we think that the renewal demand for heavy trucks is at 8?
In 9 years, it is expected that the center for the renewal demand for heavy trucks in the next three years will be more than 800,000, compared with 2010?
The 2018 update demand hub (410,000) has doubled.
We conservatively predict that the sales volume of heavy trucks will remain at about one million in the next three years. The sales volume of heavy trucks in 2019-2021 will be 109,104,980,000, which will decrease by 5% every year.
3) From the bottom up, Weichai’s major customers (FAW, Shaanxi Automobile, and Foton) will increase their market share and increase the supporting ratio of heavy trucks (Tan Xuguang, Chairman of Weichai, chairman of Sinotruk) will upgrade Weichai EngineThe market share and the increase in the proportion of large displacement products will boost the company’s profitability. It is expected that the company’s heavy truck industry chain business will exceed the heavy truck cycle.
The integration of intelligent logistics business was successful, opening new points.
1) The company entered the field of forklifts through the acquisition of KION, and since its consolidation, KION’s revenue has grown steadily.
The forklift industry is gradually weakening, and it is a growth alternative.In 2018, KION forklifts accounted for 14% of the global market restructuring. Thanks to KION’s layout in India and China, and its competitive advantage in electric forklifts (the global market share of electric forklifts19%), KION ‘s global market share is expected to further increase in the future.
2) The company cut into the field of material handling automation through the acquisition of Dematic, benefiting from the high growth of e-commerce, the logistics and handling automation industry maintained high growth, and Dematic’s revenue maintained steady growth. H1 revenue in 2019 increased by 15%.
3) KION and Dematic are respectively leaders in forklift trucks and material handling automation. The two-way downstream customers have low overlap and different geographical advantages. After the acquisition of Dematic, KION has complementary advantages and expects synergies in the future.
The Air Force, as the core of communication, transportation, power generation and energy storage, will develop rapidly under the promotion of policies.
Weichai has both geographical advantages (Shandong), resource advantages (Shandong state-owned enterprises in Shandong Province), technological advantages (leading of heavy truck industry chain + Ballard technical support), and fuel cell business is expected in the future.
Investment suggestions We estimate that the company’s return to mother’s performance from 2019 to 2021 will be 96.1 billion, 10.6 billion yuan, and the performance growth rate will be 10%, 5%, and 5%.
We adopt the segment assessment method and give the company a target of 15%.
2 yuan, corresponding to 2019 PE is estimated to be 12.
6 times, give buy rating.
Risks: Sales of heavy trucks are below expectations, sales of construction machinery are below expectations, and merger and acquisition risks.