Tsingtao Brewery (600,600)： Better than expected performance
Tsingtao Brewery (600,600): Better than expected performance
Performance exceeded expectations, with revenue +9.22%, net profit attributable 杭州夜网论坛 to mother +25.21% Tsingtao Brewery released its semi-annual report for 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 165 in the first half of the year.51 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.22%; net profit attributable to mother 16.31 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.21%; net profit after deduction of non-return to mother 14.450,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.60%; of which, the company achieved revenue of 85 in the second quarter.99 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.83%; realized net profit attributable to mother 8.23 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.6%, the company’s performance in the first half of the year achieved an unexpected growth.We expect EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.30 yuan, 1.47 yuan and 1.69 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. In the first half of the year, the sales volume successfully reached the growth target.6%; sales of 256 in the second quarter.40,000 kiloliters, an increase of 0 in ten years.9%.According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the beer industry achieved output of 1948 at the same time.80,000 liters, a slight increase of 0 in ten years.8%.The company’s 19-year business plan puts forward the goal of achieving sales volume that is higher than the average level of the domestic beer industry. In the first half of the year, the company successfully achieved the sales volume growth target that is higher than the industry growth rate. The product structure upgrade continued to advance, and the price increase effect showed that the ton price of beer products in H1 2019 increased by 5.52%, reaching 3,499 yuan, of which the ton price increased significantly in the second and second quarters, with an increase of 7 in more than one occasion.81%, we believe that the company’s ton price increase mainly benefits from: 1) the company’s direct price increase of products in response to rising raw material prices since 18 years has been consolidated in 18 years, and the price increase effect in 19 has gradually emerged; 2) product structureThe upgrade continued to advance. In the first half of 19, the company’s main brand in Qingdao, which was positioned as a mid-to-high end, achieved sales of 2.36 million kiloliters, an increase of 6 per year.3%, Laoshan and other low-end products achieved sales of 2.37 million kiloliters, an increase of 0 a year.9%; 3) Lower taxes have a positive impact on income and profits. Effectively responded to the pressure of rising costs and optimized production capacity to help East China reduce losses. The company’s net interest rate during the reporting period was 9.9%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.3 pct.The gross profit margin of the company in 2019H1 is 40.1%, a year increase of 0.7 pct, facing the pressure of rising raw material prices, the company better responded by raising prices and upgrading its product structure.In addition, the effectiveness of capacity optimization has improved, and the depreciation and amortization expenses included in operating costs in 19H1 have been further reduced by 13.48 million yuan.In terms of different regions, East China has benefited from capacity optimization to reduce losses by 98.8 million yuan.The company’s selling expenses in the first half of the year 18.1%, a year to raise 0.3 pct, of which the loading and unloading transportation fees increased compared to the same period last year, and the freight amount increased by 21.9%.Company management expenses during the reporting period 3.6%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.2 pct. Benefiting from consumption upgrades and maintaining a “buy” rating, beer companies benefited from the implementation of gradual tax reduction measures in the past four months. Tsingtao Brewery has become a brand influence. Benefiting from the accelerated upgrade of the industry’s product structure, the company is expected to continue to optimize production capacity in the future.Increase profitability.Based on the latest performance, we raised our forecasted earnings forecast, and expect the EPS for 19-21 to be 1 respectively.30 yuan, 1.47 yuan and 1.69 yuan (previous average 1).26 yuan, 1.43 yuan and 1.65 yuan), YOY is 23 respectively.4%, 13.2% and 14.8%, the average PE estimated level of comparable companies in 2019 is 54 times, combined with the company’s actual performance growth situation, the company is given a PE estimate of 45-46 times in 2019, with a target price of 58.46-59.76 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: food safety issues, risks of raw material price fluctuations, cumulative digestion risks.