Hengli Petrochemical (600346)： In 2019, it will achieve 10 billion yuan in profit scale beyond expectations and maintain Buy
Hengli Petrochemical (600346): In 2019, it will achieve 10 billion yuan in profit scale beyond expectations and maintain “Buy”
Event: The company released the 2019 performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be about 10.9 billion in 2019, previously +228.
06%; net profit after deduction is about 101.
3 trillion, +262 a year.
Corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent in the fourth quarter of 2019 is approximately 40.
8.3 billion, +46.
02%; deducting non-attribution net profit is about 35.
0.6 billion, +26.
EPS in 2019 is about 1.
55 yuan, exceeding market expectations.
Main points: 1.
The large-scale refining and chemical project has entered the harvest period and the performance exceeded expectations. On May 17, 2019, the company’s wholly-owned Changxing Island 2000 / year large-scale refining and chemical project was formally put into full production and entered the harvest period.
The project has advanced technology, large-scale, and obvious integration advantages. It has achieved strategic breakthroughs in the scarce production capacity of upstream industries such as refining, aromatics, and other significant optimizations. It has also improved the company’s business structure and refined refined polyester.The integrated layout of the industrial chain has become the main source of the company’s current profit and the main driving force for performance growth.
In Q1-Q4 of 2019, the company achieved net profit attributable to its mothers in each quarter5.
0.6 billion, 35.
1.5 billion, 27.
9.6 billion, about 40.
Taking the total product volume of 378 in the third quarter to exclude the calculation (excluding PX and acetic acid for own use), the project Q3 single-quarter operation is full-load operation, we expect that the fourth quarter will also be full-load operation.
The fourth quarter of 2019’s performance increased month-on-month. It is expected that international oil prices will rise steadily, refinement performance will improve, and inventory income will improve.
For Q1-Q3 2019, the company’s net cash flows from operating activities were -38.
05 billion, 161.
8 billion, 142.
US $ 4.8 billion. After the refinery project was put into production, the company’s cash flow improved significantly.
Although since 2019, conventional oil refining, ethylene, propylene, PX, PTA, polyester, etc. have entered the peak production period, replenishing production capacity, and increasing competition, it mainly affects backward production capacity such as geoprocessing and small-scale manufacturers.Companies with integrated advantages of “refining-aromatics-PTA-polyester” have industry-leading profitability.
PTA and ethylene projects help the company to take a new step In 2020, the company has a number of projects in production, which will help the company’s profit to take a new step.
(1) The company is under construction for 150 annual / ethylene projects, including 150 ethylene resin units and supporting 12 sets of chemical units, to further increase product added value and refining capacity.
The project has been basically completed, and production is expected to start in Q1 2020.
According to the project feasibility study report, after the project is fully operational, it is expected to achieve annual sales income of 24.3 billion yuan and an average annual net profit of approximately 4.3 billion yuan.
(2) Commissioning and production of PTA-4 project 250 years ago / year.
According to the feasibility study report, it is estimated that the average annual sales income will be 112 after the project reaches its production and efficiency.
460,000 yuan, annual average profit budget 9.
At the same time, there are 250 PTTA-5 projects expected to be completed in mid-2020, when the company’s total PTA production capacity will reach 1160 years 北京夜生活网 / year.
(3) A 135-ton high-performance multi-functional high-quality new textile material project is under construction.
It is estimated that the annual sales income is expected to be 156 after the project is fully in production.6 ppm (tax included), total annual profit is 26.
66 trillion, after-tax profit is 20 trillion.
Earnings forecast and rating We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 109 trillion, 15.1 billion and 16.1 billion, corresponding to EPS 1.
55 yuan, 2.
15 yuan and 2.
29 yuan, PE 11.
2X and 7.
Considering that the company’s large-scale refining and chemical project is in production and entering the harvest period, the ethylene project is about to be put into production. The advantages of integration of refining and chemical polyesters are obvious, and there is great room for growth in the future.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations, crude oil and product prices have risen sharply, and the project’s commissioning progress has fallen short of expectations.