Month: March 2020

Hengli Petrochemical (600346): In 2019, it will achieve 10 billion yuan in profit scale beyond expectations and maintain Buy

Hengli Petrochemical (600346): In 2019, it will achieve 10 billion yuan in profit scale beyond expectations and maintain “Buy”

Event: The company released the 2019 performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers will be about 10.9 billion in 2019, previously +228.

06%; net profit after deduction is about 101.

3 trillion, +262 a year.


Corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent in the fourth quarter of 2019 is approximately 40.

8.3 billion, +46.

02%; deducting non-attribution net profit is about 35.

0.6 billion, +26.


EPS in 2019 is about 1.

55 yuan, exceeding market expectations.

  Main points: 1.

The large-scale refining and chemical project has entered the harvest period and the performance exceeded expectations. On May 17, 2019, the company’s wholly-owned Changxing Island 2000 / year large-scale refining and chemical project was formally put into full production and entered the harvest period.

The project has advanced technology, large-scale, and obvious integration advantages. It has achieved strategic breakthroughs in the scarce production capacity of upstream industries such as refining, aromatics, and other significant optimizations. It has also improved the company’s business structure and refined refined polyester.The integrated layout of the industrial chain has become the main source of the company’s current profit and the main driving force for performance growth.

  In Q1-Q4 of 2019, the company achieved net profit attributable to its mothers in each quarter5.

0.6 billion, 35.

1.5 billion, 27.

9.6 billion, about 40.

8.3 billion.

Taking the total product volume of 378 in the third quarter to exclude the calculation (excluding PX and acetic acid for own use), the project Q3 single-quarter operation is full-load operation, we expect that the fourth quarter will also be full-load operation.

The fourth quarter of 2019’s performance increased month-on-month. It is expected that international oil prices will rise steadily, refinement performance will improve, and inventory income will improve.

For Q1-Q3 2019, the company’s net cash flows from operating activities were -38.

05 billion, 161.

8 billion, 142.

US $ 4.8 billion. After the refinery project was put into production, the company’s cash flow improved significantly.

  Although since 2019, conventional oil refining, ethylene, propylene, PX, PTA, polyester, etc. have entered the peak production period, replenishing production capacity, and increasing competition, it mainly affects backward production capacity such as geoprocessing and small-scale manufacturers.Companies with integrated advantages of “refining-aromatics-PTA-polyester” have industry-leading profitability.


PTA and ethylene projects help the company to take a new step In 2020, the company has a number of projects in production, which will help the company’s profit to take a new step.

(1) The company is under construction for 150 annual / ethylene projects, including 150 ethylene resin units and supporting 12 sets of chemical units, to further increase product added value and refining capacity.

The project has been basically completed, and production is expected to start in Q1 2020.

According to the project feasibility study report, after the project is fully operational, it is expected to achieve annual sales income of 24.3 billion yuan and an average annual net profit of approximately 4.3 billion yuan.

(2) Commissioning and production of PTA-4 project 250 years ago / year.

According to the feasibility study report, it is estimated that the average annual sales income will be 112 after the project reaches its production and efficiency.

460,000 yuan, annual average profit budget 9.

07 billion.

At the same time, there are 250 PTTA-5 projects expected to be completed in mid-2020, when the company’s total PTA production capacity will reach 1160 years 北京夜生活网 / year.

(3) A 135-ton high-performance multi-functional high-quality new textile material project is under construction.

It is estimated that the annual sales income is expected to be 156 after the project is fully in production.6 ppm (tax included), total annual profit is 26.

66 trillion, after-tax profit is 20 trillion.


Earnings forecast and rating We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 109 trillion, 15.1 billion and 16.1 billion, corresponding to EPS 1.

55 yuan, 2.

15 yuan and 2.

29 yuan, PE 11.

3X, 8.

2X and 7.

7 times.

  Considering that the company’s large-scale refining and chemical project is in production and entering the harvest period, the ethylene project is about to be put into production. The advantages of integration of refining and chemical polyesters are obvious, and there is great room for growth in the future.

  Risk warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations, crude oil and product prices have risen sharply, and the project’s commissioning progress has fallen short of expectations.

China State Construction (601668): Real estate gross profit margin increased significantly, profitability continued to improve

China State Construction (601668): Real estate gross profit margin increased significantly, profitability continued to improve

The order growth rate is steady, and the housing construction orders in 2019 will increase rapidly.

63 trillion, an increase of 7.


Affected by the substitution of local debt liquidation in 2018, strict PPP supervision and tightening of financial policies, the growth rate of infrastructure investment accelerated, and the growth rate of orders fell by 11 compared with the same period last year.

5 units.

The amount of newly signed contracts in China accounted for 82%.

The growth rate was stable at 7%, and due to the slower-than-expected landing rate of many major projects and the high base in the same period of the previous year, the number of overseas projects decreased by 21.


The total value of newly signed contracts in January-February 杭州夜网 2019 was 535.9 billion, an increase of 77.

2%, an increase of 41% over the same period last year.

In total, the housing construction business contributed a major increase, and the order growth rate picked up.

In 2019, the company plans to sign new contract amounts2.

82 trillion, an increase of 4.

4%, steady growth.

  The growth rate of revenue in the fourth quarter increased, and the gross profit margin of real estate increased significantly. The company’s operating income increased by 13 in 2018.

8% to 11.93 million yuan.

Real estate and infrastructure business revenues increased by 15 each.

9% and 19.

8%, real estate grew slightly, and accelerated the adjustment to the “532” industrial structure.

The company’s single-quarter revenue growth in the fourth quarter also increased by 26.

7%, mainly due to the remarkable growth rate of the housing construction business in the fourth quarter.

In 2018, there were approximately 37 joint ventures and associates related to the PPP statement, compared with 31 in the same period last year. The company’s associated transactions with joint ventures and associates amounted to approximately 38 billion yuan, accounting for 3 of the revenue.

2%, ranking rose 0 last year.

4 averages.

The company comprehensively cleaned up and reformed the existing PPP projects, and rationally controlled the expansion of PPP projects, which led to the advancement of PPP projects and the slowdown in infrastructure growth.

The company plans to achieve revenue in 20191.

27 trillion, an increase of 5.


In 2018, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 1 compared with the previous year.

4 units, of which the gross profit margin of the real estate business was 35%, an increase of 5.

9 percentage points, mainly due to the low cost of land acquisition in the early stage and the expansion of profit margins; the gross profit margin of housing construction also increased by 1.

1 single, or contribute part of gross margin growth.

  During the period, the expense ratio increased slightly, and the cash flow situation improved.

17%, the same increase of 0.

93 units, a significant growth rate.

The company’s sales expense ratio is also reduced by zero.

03 shares per share, basically unchanged; the management expense ratio also increased by 0.

27 budgets, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, office expenses and travel expenses caused by business expansion; financial expense rate increased by 0.32 units, correspondingly increased the company’s long-term borrowings and bonds payable; the R & D expense ratio increased by zero.

37 singles, due to the company’s increased scientific and technological research and development promotion.

Asset impairment losses increased by 48.

5% to 104.

700 million, or due to the impact of the domestic economic downturn and fiscal pressure, resulting in an increase in the improvement of bad debt losses.

Taken together, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother increased by 16 in 18 years.

1% to 382.

400 million, return on net assets of 15.

97%, an increase of 0 from the previous.

15 units.

  In terms of cash flow, the cash ratio is 1.

04, cash is better than 1.

07, basically the same as last year.

The company’s net operating cash flow of 10.3 billion was mainly due to the good recovery of construction and sales.

At the end of the year, the company’s asset-liability ratio continued to decline1.

1 up to 76.

9%, fully meeting the budget pressure reduction target.

The company is divided into dividends in 20181.

68 yuan, the dividend rate is reduced by 1.

14 up to 18.


  Investment advice The company has ample orders in hand, and its revenue growth is stable. In addition, the company’s third phase of equity incentives has recently been completed, and the performance release momentum has been further enhanced.

In summary, the EPS for 19-21 is slightly increased to 1, respectively.

02, 1.


24 yuan / share (the original EPS forecast for 19-20 years was 0.

92, 0.

99 yuan / share), PE is 6.

3, 5.

7, 5.

1 times.

  The target price is slightly raised from 7 yuan to 7.

3 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: fast-changing investment in fixed assets, and the progress of PPP projects is not as expected.

Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical (600835) First Coverage Report: Global Perspective on Elevators: Undervalued Quality Value Stocks

Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical (600835) First Coverage Report: Global Perspective 北京夜生活网 on Elevators: Undervalued Quality Value Stocks

This report reads: The elevator industry has bottomed out, the demand for relay real estate has been updated, and the installation of elevators has been catalyzed by policies.

Global perspective: Shanghai Mitsubishi’s cash dividend ratio is close to 100%. Shanghai Mechanical and Electrical is an undervalued high-quality stock.

Investment Highlights: Conclusion: Looking at elevators from a global perspective, Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical is an undervalued premium value stock.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

31, 1.

52, 1.

74 yuan, considering the company as the industry leader, and the future performance growth rate, given a target price of 20.

9 yuan, corresponding to 16 times PE in 2019, increased holdings.

The elevator industry has bottomed out and is picking up, renewing the demand for relay real estate, and installing an elevator to welcome policy catalysis.

① Estimation of elevator demand: The output growth range in 2019 is 7.

5% -10.

6% (Association caliber).

The elevator lags behind the real estate construction for about a year, and the output growth rate has continued to double, setting a new high in four years (statistical bureau caliber); meanwhile, the elevator price has stabilized, which confirms that the industry has bottomed out and recovered.

② Renewal demand: The aging of elevators, the Jugra cycle that is about to start, is expected to be updated by 100,000 units in 2021, to relay real estate demand.

③ Potential demand for the installation of 2 million elevators in old communities, plus subsidies for old city reconstruction policies, is expected to quickly increase volume.

Global perspective: Shanghai Mitsubishi’s cash dividend ratio is close to 100%, and it is an undervalued value stock.

① Japan’s experience looks at China: Elevators remain engaged in sales in the medium and long term.

The number of newly installed elevators in Japan was stable at 40,000 from 1991 to 2006, and remained at 2 after 2006.

80,000 units, the stock was renovated to participate; Japan’s stock elevators over 25 years in 20155.

60,000 units, 100,000 units in 2020.

In Japan, Mitsubishi Electric accounts for 50% of the new and new installation needs.

② KONE Elevator 北京夜生活网 and Shanghai Mitsubishi Cash Dividends have a dividend payout ratio close to 100%, and KONE 4.

A 1% dividend yield supports 26 times PE.

KONE’s revenue from China accounts for 25%. In the second quarter of 2019, orders in China exceeded 10% growth, a significant increase.

③ Subsidiary Shanghai Mitsubishi has outstanding competitive advantages, which is comparable to Hitachi (China) in terms of revenue volume and stronger profitability; the parent company has 4.8 billion in cash in hand, and the company is an undervalued high-quality stock.

Catalyst: Intelligent manufacturing epitaxy and improved incentive mechanism.

Increased risk: new real estate starts to expand, industry competition intensifies, and investment returns reduce risk

COSCO Haifa (601866) first coverage report: waiting for improvement of non-ROE

COSCO Haifa (601866) first coverage report: waiting for improvement of non-ROE

Introduction to this report: As a leading-scale consolidated financial platform, diversified equity investment is expected to drive profit growth.

The ROE of the existing business is low. Investors need to be patient and wait for the breakthrough of the company’s development path.

Investment points: 1.

Covered for the first time, rated “Neutral”.

The profit prospects of long-term leasing and container manufacturing are stable, and the profit of equity investment is expected to continue to grow, but the non-shareholder yield is still low.

We predict EPS for 2019-21 to be zero.

17, 0.

17, 0.

18 yuan.

Comprehensive DCF estimation method and comparable company average PE method, give 15 times PE, target price 2.

57 yuan.


First-class leasing expertise, leading in scale globally.

Relying on the deep and progressive background of the group, the company conducts multiple financial services such as leasing and leasing.

After the optimization and integration of advanced leasing business, profit margins improved.

The ship leasing scale ranks first in the world and the container leasing ranks second in the world. It is expected to obtain stable returns in the future.

However, the domestic financing cost of the company is higher than that of the financial leasing institution controlled by the bank, and the spread limit limits the improvement of the return on net assets.


Entrusted container manufacturing assets have significantly increased market influence.

The company increased the maximum capacity of container manufacturing, accelerated the research and development of special containers, and enhanced competitiveness.

After the parent company acquired the Singamas container container manufacturing assets, the market influence in the container manufacturing field has increased significantly.

Although container manufacturing is highly concentrated, 北京夜网 competition has been extremely fierce for many years. Fortunately, the timing of the acquisition has selected a weak industry boom.


Expansion of related industry investment and exerting synergies.

The company develops industrial funds, small loan companies, insurance and factoring, and builds a one-stop financial service system.

Synergies help increase returns and reduce risk.

However, due to the long investment time, long-term investment capacity and return on investment still need to be observed.


risk warning.

Global economic growth has slowed, new shipbuilding orders have increased significantly, and transactional financial asset prices have fallen.

Ping An Bank (000001): PPOP continues to accelerate asset quality initiative

Ping An Bank (000001): PPOP continues to accelerate asset quality initiative

Event description On January 14, Ping An Bank released its 2019 performance report.

Incident review accrual efforts increased the general performance growth rate, and PPOP continued to accelerate.

In 2019, the company realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 281.

9.5 billion, an increase of 13 in ten years.

61%, a faster growth rate than the first three quarters of the first quarter.

87 units; attributable net profit grew fastest in the fourth quarter.


Although the growth rate of the company’s 淡水桑拿网 performance has a clear trend, it is as high as 19.

56% of PPOP growth has further 南京桑拿网 accelerated.

From the perspective of performance attribution, we judge that the positive contribution still mainly comes from the spread and scale expansion; the marginal incremental contribution mainly comes from the accelerated expansion of the scale, while the margin contribution narrows down and the provisioning strength is strengthened.

Due to the company’s prudent calculation of the performance growth rate, and the merger of convertible bonds into shares, the dilutive effect has reduced the company’s ROE by 19bp to 11.

30%; but the ROA ushered in an inflection point, beyond 3bp to 0.


Revenue increased slightly, maintaining a high growth trend beyond expectations.

In 2019, the company achieved operating income of 1,379.

5.8 billion, an increase of 18 years.

20%, a slight increase of 0 compared with the first three quarters.

60 units; operating income growth rate in the fourth quarter alone was 16.

46%, exceeding expectations.

Growth, the company in the fourth quarter accelerated the pace of asset injection after capital replenishment, especially loans, total assets, loans increased sequentially.

24%, 8.

00%; it is expected that the company’s fourth quarter interest rate difference will remain relatively stable, which reflects the pricing advantage of retail business.

After the capital replenishment is in place, it will make concerted efforts to the Gongxin strategy.

The general direction on the asset side is still tilting towards loans, with loan expansion growing earlier.

30%, faster than the total asset growth of 15.

22%; retail loans grew 17 earlier.

61%, the proportion of total assets rose to 58.

98%, the retail strategy continued to deepen.

In the fourth quarter alone, after the capital replenishment was in place, the company significantly increased the issuance of public debt, relying on the Group’s joint implementation of the new corporate strategy to achieve significant results, and corporate (including discount) loans increased by 10 quarter-on-quarter.

04%, while personal loans increased by only 6.


  Under the gradual recovery of corporate business, the accumulation of denials has also ushered in a repair, which has increased significantly at the end of the third quarter.

36%, of which corporate deposits increased by 7.


In fact, the efficiency of the retail strategy at the deposit end has also begun to show improvement, and the growth of individual personal deposits has increased by 26.

45%, and personal current deposits increased by 15 earlier.

34% is also faster than the 14 accumulated deposits.
49% increase.
  Risk Warning: 1.

The outstanding deterioration of corporate profits affects the quality of bank assets; 2.

Financial supervision has become more stringent.

Weichai Power (000338): Leading heavy truck industry chain leads Zhiyuan Intelligent Logistics, fuel cells add new kinetic energy

Weichai Power (000338): Leading heavy truck industry chain leads Zhiyuan Intelligent Logistics, fuel cells add new kinetic energy

Investment logic The traditional main industry heavy truck industry chain business continued to weaken and its performance grew steadily.

1) The heavy truck industry chain business is the company’s traditional main business. In H1 2019, the company’s three major businesses: engine, 杭州夜网论坛 heavy truck, and heavy truck gearboxes accounted for 64% of revenue, and its mother business accounted for 89%. Historically, the companyHeavy truck industry chain business revenue, performance and heavy truck sales are highly correlated, changing with the heavy truck cycle.

2) From the top down, we think the renewal demand will support the sales of heavy trucks in the next three years.

According to our calculations, we think that the renewal demand for heavy trucks is at 8?
In 9 years, it is expected that the center for the renewal demand for heavy trucks in the next three years will be more than 800,000, compared with 2010?
The 2018 update demand hub (410,000) has doubled.

We conservatively predict that the sales volume of heavy trucks will remain at about one million in the next three years. The sales volume of heavy trucks in 2019-2021 will be 109,104,980,000, which will decrease by 5% every year.

3) From the bottom up, Weichai’s major customers (FAW, Shaanxi Automobile, and Foton) will increase their market share and increase the supporting ratio of heavy trucks (Tan Xuguang, Chairman of Weichai, chairman of Sinotruk) will upgrade Weichai EngineThe market share and the increase in the proportion of large displacement products will boost the company’s profitability. It is expected that the company’s heavy truck industry chain business will exceed the heavy truck cycle.

The integration of intelligent logistics business was successful, opening new points.

1) The company entered the field of forklifts through the acquisition of KION, and since its consolidation, KION’s revenue has grown steadily.

The forklift industry is gradually weakening, and it is a growth alternative.In 2018, KION forklifts accounted for 14% of the global market restructuring. Thanks to KION’s layout in India and China, and its competitive advantage in electric forklifts (the global market share of electric forklifts19%), KION ‘s global market share is expected to further increase in the future.

2) The company cut into the field of material handling automation through the acquisition of Dematic, benefiting from the high growth of e-commerce, the logistics and handling automation industry maintained high growth, and Dematic’s revenue maintained steady growth. H1 revenue in 2019 increased by 15%.

3) KION and Dematic are respectively leaders in forklift trucks and material handling automation. The two-way downstream customers have low overlap and different geographical advantages. After the acquisition of Dematic, KION has complementary advantages and expects synergies in the future.

The Air Force, as the core of communication, transportation, power generation and energy storage, will develop rapidly under the promotion of policies.

Weichai has both geographical advantages (Shandong), resource advantages (Shandong state-owned enterprises in Shandong Province), technological advantages (leading of heavy truck industry chain + Ballard technical support), and fuel cell business is expected in the future.

Investment suggestions We estimate that the company’s return to mother’s performance from 2019 to 2021 will be 96.1 billion, 10.6 billion yuan, and the performance growth rate will be 10%, 5%, and 5%.

We adopt the segment assessment method and give the company a target of 15%.

2 yuan, corresponding to 2019 PE is estimated to be 12.

6 times, give buy rating.

Risks: Sales of heavy trucks are below expectations, sales of construction machinery are below expectations, and merger and acquisition risks.

Hetai (002402) Investment Value Analysis Report: Global Intelligent Controller Leads to Add New Growth Pole to RF Chips

Hetai (002402) Investment Value Analysis Report: Global Intelligent Controller Leads to Add New Growth Pole to RF Chips

The company is a leader in 5G Internet of Things, a high-speed growth track, excellent performance and cash flow performance, and superimposed core chip asset blessing, which is a white horse for scarce technology growth in China.

Using segment estimates, 北京养生会所 referring to the Internet of Things, high-quality companies in the core chip field, give smart controllers 45 times PE, which is 16 billion market value, and RF chips 80 times, which is 8 billion market value.

We think the company’s reasonable target city size in 2020 is 24 billion, corresponding to a target price of 26.

37 yuan, the first coverage, given a “buy” rating.

   Changhong’s leading IoT intelligent controller.

The company’s main business has been focusing on intelligent controllers for the Internet of Things for 20 years, and it has become a global leader in the field of intelligent controllers.

The company’s revenue and profits have grown rapidly in the past 12 years. The compound growth rate of revenue has reached 24% and the compound growth rate of performance has been 19%.

In 2018, the company’s household appliances, power tools and intelligent controllers accounted for 81% of revenue. Automotive electronics, intelligent buildings and furniture, and intelligent lighting and other controllers accelerated their development.

   Deep global expansion will benefit the 5G Internet of Things era.

The intelligent controller is the “brain” of the Internet of Things device. The global market is more than one trillion US dollars, and the ceiling is obviously growing.

The appearance of domestic double faucets is obvious, and domestic faucets benefit from the transfer of global intelligent controller production to China, and domestic faucets are accelerating to become global leaders.

The 5G era will further strengthen the logic of rising prices and prices of smart controllers.

The company’s overseas revenue in 2019H1 has accounted for 71%. The company’s high-end customers, high-end market, and high-end technology strategy are obvious. The operating cash flow ratio has increased from 2% in 2011 to 14% in 2019H1. It is a fast-growing cash cow company.

   RF chips open new space for growth.

Subsidiary Kunchang Technology is a core company in the domestic microwave and millimeter wave radio frequency chip field. The radio frequency chip is one of the major breakthroughs in 6G technology due to the modernization of national defense, satellite Internet, and even 5G millimeter wave networking in the future.High learning.
   Risk factors: raw material price fluctuation risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; market expansion fails to meet expectations; goodwill impairment risk; RF chip business development fails to meet expectations; macro environmental risks.

   Investment suggestion: The company is a leader in 5G Internet of Things, a fast-growing track, excellent performance and cash flow performance, and 天津夜网 superimposed core chip asset blessings.

Using segment estimates, referring to the Internet of Things, high-quality companies in the core chip field, give smart controllers 45 times PE, or 16 billion US dollars, and 80 times the valuation of radio frequency chips, or 80 billion.

We believe that the company’s reasonable target cities in 2020 will grow by 24 billion, corresponding to a target price of 26.

37 yuan, first coverage, give “buy” rating

Overseas Chinese Town A (000069) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review Report: Turnaround, Acceleration, Advance, High Growth, Zero Premium, Land and Reserve Expansion

Overseas Chinese Town A (000069) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review Report: Turnaround, Acceleration, Advance, High Growth, Zero Premium, Land and Reserve Expansion

The report guides the company’s operating income in the first quarter of 201979.

2 billion, a previous growth rate of 25.

69%, net profit attributable to parent company11.

9.9 billion, a six-year growth of 6.

94%, basically 0 benefits.

15 yuan.

The investment settlement of income points has grown steadily, and high-margin industries will achieve operating income of 79 in the first quarter of 2019.

2 billion, an annual increase of 25.

69%, settlement gross margin 62.

23%, about the full year of 2018 (60.

35%) increase by 1.

88 units; settlement net profit decreased by 15.

77%, estimated for the full year 2018 (23.

46%) 7.

69 units.

The increase in net profit ratio compared to 2018 is at least mainly due to the significant expansion of the company’s land acquisition in 2018, the increase in interest-bearing debt, and the mismatch between income settlement and current index expenditures leading to an increase in financial expense ratios.

Turnover speeded up and pre-receipt growth was high, and the income coverage multiple increased significantly. Affected by the rebound in new house sales in first- and second-tier cities and the company’s rapid sales push, the company’s advance account receipts in the first quarter were 557.

7.1 billion, a significant increase of 75 from one year to the first quarter of 2018.

8%, an increase of 31 from the end of 2018.


The coverage ratio of advance receipts to operating income in the past four quarters is 1.

16, approximately 2018Q4 (0.

89) Raise 0.

27, ranking 2018Q1 (0.

75) Outstanding promotion 0.

41. The value of unsettled goods sold by the company increased, and the certainty of future performance settlement was further enhanced.

The expansion of the inventory scale has accelerated, and the indicator’s land acquisition capacity is fully displayed. The company’s inventory scale in 2019Q1 was 1798.

9.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49% in 2018Q1, and a 12% increase over 2018Q4.

3%, the land acquisition speed has further expanded. According to the first quarterly report, the consolidated company reported that it has added 9 new land reserves and 342 construction areas to be developed.

With 680,000 countries, Nadi includes Jinan, Zhengzhou, Maoming, Chaozhou, Shanwei, Shenzhen, and Xi’an.

According to the wind land database, the average land price for adding land is only 2539.

84 yuan per square meter, except for the Chaozhou Science and Technology Park project, where the land acquisition premium rate is 2%, the rest of the land is traded at a zero premium rate.

Earnings forecast and 深圳spa会所 forecast The company is expected to achieve operating income of 579 from 2019 to 2021.

8.7 billion, 702.

2.6 billion, 825.

3.1 billion, an increase of 20 each year.

45%, 21.
11%, 17.
52%; Net profit attributable to parent company will be 128 from 2019 to 2021.

8.7 billion, 152.

7.7 billion and 186.

1.8 billion, an increase of 21 each year.

68%, 18.

55% and 21.


At present, the company’s relative revaluation of net assets is discounted by about 60%. In the real estate small cycle from 2014 to the present, the company’s size has been trading at an average of 15% of revalued net assets.

Under the current equity, the EPS is expected to be 1 from 2019 to 2021.


86, 2.

27, the current expected PE is 5.

05 times, 4.

26 times, 3.

49 times, Shen Wanwan Real Estate Index is currently at PE11.

The transaction at 3 times level is regarded as the company’s high-quality asset reserve, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Real estate policy tightened more than expected; 2.

Industry sales growth accelerated faster than expected.

Tongwei (600438): Not afraid of industry adjustment to accelerate capacity expansion

Tongwei (600438): Not afraid of industry adjustment to accelerate capacity expansion
The industry trough leader accelerates capacity expansion, and performance is expected to usher in a rebound in the company’s 2018 revenue of 275.3.5 billion (+5.53%), net profit attributable to mother 20.1.9 billion (+0.51%), 19Q1 operating income 61.6.9 billion (+18.14%), net profit attributable to mother 4.9.1 billion (+53.36%).Affected by the 531 New Deal, the company’s 18-year revenue pressure, 19Q1 revenue, the possibility of a rebound in the average profit.The industry trough leader accelerated its capacity expansion and performance was in line with expectations. We expect the company’s EPS in 19-20 to be 0.78 and 1.07 yuan, given a target price of 15.4-16.94 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. The production capacity of silicon materials and cells continued to climb, the price of the industrial chain gradually stabilized, and the profitability increased. 武汉夜网论坛 According to the annual report, the company achieved sales of high-purity crystalline silicon in 20181.92 at least (+19.74%), reducing production costs by 5.About 53 million / ton, the scale effect is obvious.By the end of 2018, the company is located in Leshan, and the first phase of two high-purity crystalline silicon projects in Baotou have been completed and put into operation as planned, and the capacity will reach 8 when fully reached; Chengdu 3.2GW and Hefei 2.The 3GW high-efficiency battery project has gradually reached production, and the solar cell has formed a 12GW capacity scale.In March 2019, the company launched the fourth phase of Chengdu and Meishan new projects. The company expects that the scale of solar cells will reach 20GW by the end of 19, and the scale advantage will be further enhanced.We believe that the 苏州夜网论坛 launch of new production capacity will further reduce the average production cost, further accelerate the clearance of high-cost production capacity overseas, and the price of the industrial chain is expected to stabilize, driving the company’s earnings to rebound. The scale of power station operation has continued to grow, and the integrated pattern of the photovoltaic field has come to an end.At the end of 2018, the company has 52 photovoltaic power generation projects with a cumulative installed scale of 1,151MW (more than + 136%). Power generation will be achieved in 2018.4.3 billion kWh, generating income 6.200 million (previously + 137%).As a professional manufacturer of silicon materials, cells and modules, the company has advantages in technology and cost. Through design optimization and technological innovation, it reduces the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation year by year.According to the annual report, at the end of 2018, the comprehensive investment cost of photovoltaic power plants has dropped to less than 5 yuan / W, and the company expects to replace the cost within 4 yuan / W in 19 years.We believe that the company’s integrated pattern in photovoltaics has taken shape, and its cost and management capabilities are leading the industry. The gross profit margin decreased slightly in 18 years, and the increase in financial costs was affected by the decline in the photovoltaic industry chain price and the increase in the proportion of fish feed income with low gross profit margins.91% (decade -0.66pct), slightly decreased.The standardized production capacity was put into operation and the photovoltaic industry chain price rebounded to drive the company’s gross profit margin to rebound to 22 in 19Q1.25%.The company has an expense ratio of 10 during its 18-year sales period.22% (decade +0.5pct), where the financial expense ratio is 1.15% (decade +0.55pct), mainly due to the expansion of the company’s financing scale and rising market financing costs.Driven by the company’s revenue growth, the company’s 18-year operating cash flow was 31 trillion yuan (+6.31%), and cash flow has improved. The release of production capacity promotes the improvement of performance and maintains the “Buy” rating. The company ‘s capacity and cost advantages in the field of silicon materials and battery cells continue to expand.0.78 and 1.07 yuan (previous average 0.65 and 0.91 yuan), comparable company’s 19-year average PE is 21.5 times, based on the company’s silicon material, double-headed overview of battery chips, giving the company 20-22 times PE in 19 years, target price of 15.4-16.94 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: 1) Insufficient installed capacity of photovoltaic replenishment, dragging on the accumulation of digestion; 2) The price of aquatic feed drops.

Shentong Express (002468) Quarterly Comment: Intensified market competition weighs on Q3 results and long-term bullish on Ali cooperation

Shentong Express (002468) Quarterly Comment: Intensified market competition weighs on Q3 results and long-term bullish on Ali cooperation

Event: Shentong Express released the third quarter report of 2019.

Operating income for the first three quarters of 2019 was 156.

5.6 billion, an annual increase of 41.

01%, net profit attributable to mother 11.

0.6 billion, down 31 each year.

35%, deducting non-net profit 10.

49 trillion, down 16 a year.


2019Q3 revenue 57.

85 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

67%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

73 trillion, down 63 a year.

23%, deducting non-net profit 2.

6.7 billion, an annual decrease of 38.


Opinion: Affected by the disposal of Fengchao and the intensified market competition in the same period last year, the decline in performance.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother in the third quarter decreased by 63%.

23%, mainly due to the high base of investment income generated from disposal of Fengchao’s equity in the same period last year.

19Q3 company single ticket income 2.

8 yuan, down 13 from 18Q3.

13%, mainly due to the decrease in the weight of a single ticket.

The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters dropped by 5.

83pct to 11.

99%, mainly due to the incremental compensation policy of franchisees, the impact of intensified market competition.

In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio increased by 0.

3pct to 0.

68%, mainly due to changes in the organizational structure and the corresponding increase in labor costs of sales staff; the management expense ratio and research and development expense ratio decreased by 0.

07pct to 2.

68%; financial expense ratio increased by 0.

75pct to -0.

25%, mainly due to the decrease in interest income.

Increase capital 南宁桑拿 expenditure in the third quarter to ensure service quality during peak seasons.

The “Double Eleven” pre-sale activity has been launched, the industry has entered the traditional express delivery season, and the market is moving towards price increases. The company purchased and built fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets in cash in the first three quarters.

07 trillion, including 9 in the third quarter.

07 trillion US dollars, capital expenditure increased in size, the company’s production capacity increased, the capacity increase can effectively undertake the express delivery business in the peak season to ensure service quality.

Ali plans to purchase more Shentong Express, and the future is promising.

Alibaba plans to purchase 31 more listed companies.

349% equity, acquired within three years 北京夜网 from December 28, 2019. After all exercise, Alibaba will hold 46% equity of listed companies.Alibaba’s purchase of the company’s equity will help listed companies complete the restructuring and upgrading of their main business as soon as possible, and will help the long-term profitability of listed companies.

Investment strategy: Due to the intensified market competition, we lowered the company’s profit forecast and expect the net profit to be returned to the mother in 2019-202117.

6.4 billion, 21.

8.6 billion, 26.

52 ppm, an increase of -13 in ten years.

9%, 23.

9%, 21.

3%, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: risks caused by market competition, Pinduoduo and other e-commerce growth are less than expected risks, and the cooperation process is less than expected risks.