Tongwei (600438)： Not afraid of industry adjustment to accelerate capacity expansion
Tongwei (600438): Not afraid of industry adjustment to accelerate capacity expansion
The industry trough leader accelerates capacity expansion, and performance is expected to usher in a rebound in the company’s 2018 revenue of 275.3.5 billion (+5.53%), net profit attributable to mother 20.1.9 billion (+0.51%), 19Q1 operating income 61.6.9 billion (+18.14%), net profit attributable to mother 4.9.1 billion (+53.36%).Affected by the 531 New Deal, the company’s 18-year revenue pressure, 19Q1 revenue, the possibility of a rebound in the average profit.The industry trough leader accelerated its capacity expansion and performance was in line with expectations. We expect the company’s EPS in 19-20 to be 0.78 and 1.07 yuan, given a target price of 15.4-16.94 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. The production capacity of silicon materials and cells continued to climb, the price of the industrial chain gradually stabilized, and the profitability increased. 武汉夜网论坛 According to the annual report, the company achieved sales of high-purity crystalline silicon in 20181.92 at least (+19.74%), reducing production costs by 5.About 53 million / ton, the scale effect is obvious.By the end of 2018, the company is located in Leshan, and the first phase of two high-purity crystalline silicon projects in Baotou have been completed and put into operation as planned, and the capacity will reach 8 when fully reached; Chengdu 3.2GW and Hefei 2.The 3GW high-efficiency battery project has gradually reached production, and the solar cell has formed a 12GW capacity scale.In March 2019, the company launched the fourth phase of Chengdu and Meishan new projects. The company expects that the scale of solar cells will reach 20GW by the end of 19, and the scale advantage will be further enhanced.We believe that the 苏州夜网论坛 launch of new production capacity will further reduce the average production cost, further accelerate the clearance of high-cost production capacity overseas, and the price of the industrial chain is expected to stabilize, driving the company’s earnings to rebound. The scale of power station operation has continued to grow, and the integrated pattern of the photovoltaic field has come to an end.At the end of 2018, the company has 52 photovoltaic power generation projects with a cumulative installed scale of 1,151MW (more than + 136%). Power generation will be achieved in 2018.4.3 billion kWh, generating income 6.200 million (previously + 137%).As a professional manufacturer of silicon materials, cells and modules, the company has advantages in technology and cost. Through design optimization and technological innovation, it reduces the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation year by year.According to the annual report, at the end of 2018, the comprehensive investment cost of photovoltaic power plants has dropped to less than 5 yuan / W, and the company expects to replace the cost within 4 yuan / W in 19 years.We believe that the company’s integrated pattern in photovoltaics has taken shape, and its cost and management capabilities are leading the industry. The gross profit margin decreased slightly in 18 years, and the increase in financial costs was affected by the decline in the photovoltaic industry chain price and the increase in the proportion of fish feed income with low gross profit margins.91% (decade -0.66pct), slightly decreased.The standardized production capacity was put into operation and the photovoltaic industry chain price rebounded to drive the company’s gross profit margin to rebound to 22 in 19Q1.25%.The company has an expense ratio of 10 during its 18-year sales period.22% (decade +0.5pct), where the financial expense ratio is 1.15% (decade +0.55pct), mainly due to the expansion of the company’s financing scale and rising market financing costs.Driven by the company’s revenue growth, the company’s 18-year operating cash flow was 31 trillion yuan (+6.31%), and cash flow has improved. The release of production capacity promotes the improvement of performance and maintains the “Buy” rating. The company ‘s capacity and cost advantages in the field of silicon materials and battery cells continue to expand.0.78 and 1.07 yuan (previous average 0.65 and 0.91 yuan), comparable company’s 19-year average PE is 21.5 times, based on the company’s silicon material, double-headed overview of battery chips, giving the company 20-22 times PE in 19 years, target price of 15.4-16.94 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminders: 1) Insufficient installed capacity of photovoltaic replenishment, dragging on the accumulation of digestion; 2) The price of aquatic feed drops.